CDCdirector makes false claims about the spread ofvirus through travel.
Gary Leff on the 30th. March 2021.
On Monday, the CDC director urged Americans not to travel because it would worsen the spread of Covid-19. Whatever she was,
- But that doesn’t explain how she thinks things are going.
- Does not distinguish between vaccinated and unvaccinated.
- And offers an argument that is simply false to support his case.
Dr. Rochelle Walenski, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, reiterated at a COVID-19 White House briefing that Americans should limit their travel.
Travel, she explained, only worsens the spread of COVID-19.
… We constantly discourage travel by saying: Please limit them to the most necessary trips.
It is literally true that a person infected with the virus can transmit it to another place where the virus has not yet spread through travel in the community. But it’s not like traveling to the United States, where the virus is already widespread, leads to drunkenness or hospitalizations. And it is incorrect to say, as she does, that travel causes spillover.
First, it suggests that business is picking up in the United States as travel increases. This is a very simplistic view.
If correlation were causation, how about the fact that Texas has the lowest incidence rate in 9 months and the lowest number of hospitalizations in 6 months, three weeks after it lost its masking mandate and reopened its bars 100%? Clearly, something else is going on here. The number of cases has generally continued to decline in the southern half of the country and to increase in the northern half.
Appropriations : The New York Times
The biggest increases came from places like New York, New Jersey and Michigan. There’s not even a connection to business and foreclosure orders or company closures. Sure, Florida, one of the fastest growing markets in aviation, has seen some growth, but that’s nothing compared to the Northeast.
It is plausible to think that it is a function of temperature and options, but it is hard to say that it is due to travel. In fact, the decline in Covid cases slowed before more travel. But Walenski raises an even broader point,
More people are traveling now than ever before, than during the entire pandemic, including the Christmas and New Year holidays, she said.
She added that the country has experienced a spike in the incidence of COVID after every holiday since the pandemic began. I want to reiterate that the CDC recommends no travel for now.
Walenski attributes viral spikes to recreational activities. But it doesn’t match the data.
- Covid was already in business until the 4th. July on the rise. Two weeks after this holiday, the number of cases began to decline.
- The low point of the summer wave was reached after Labor Day.
- The third wave of cases began in October and – with a drop in reports during the Thanksgiving holiday – there was no turnaround after Thanksgiving.
- Two weeks after Christmas, we began to see the falls descend from above.
New York Times Case Study Credit
If people get together in their own town for the holidays, they can spread the virus. When they travel, they may see fewer people than if they had stayed at home. The journey itself is not risky. That’s what you do at your destination. This is a guideline the CDC should offer: avoid crowded, poorly ventilated indoor spaces.
Travel doesn’t seem to be the determining factor, and even Italy and France don’t have clear holidays (France even has internal travel restrictions in limited areas, but that hasn’t stopped the rise).
Appropriations : Google
Appropriations : Google
In any case, vaccinated people should be able to travel. The CDC’s own research shows that vaccinated people are not at significant risk of contracting or spreading the virus. In young children, the risk is even lower than in vaccinated adults.
Some people, including travelers, act as if the pandemic is over. That’s not the case. That’s why it’s so important to get vaccinated as soon as possible. Thereafter, the risks remain, but they must be manageable.
The CDC did an excellent job of staining its reputation during the pandemic. With the new director, the agency is making a fresh start. It must state scientific truths and provide convincing explanations. In an attempt to understand why the CDC is even advising vaccinated people to stay home, some have even tried to argue that it would be unfair to those who have not yet had the chance to be vaccinated. If not, what is the argument here?
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